A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
