Colombian President, Gustavo Petro, is undertaking a critical trip to Washington to confer with American leader Donald Trump. This marks the initial face-to-face encounter for the two leaders following months of rising strains and sharp exchanges.
Agenda for Discussion
The situation in Venezuela, drug trafficking, oil, regional stability, and US strikes on alleged narco-boats are expected to be high on the list of topics when they meet at the US presidential residence on the scheduled day.
Background of Strained Relations
While the two men were polite in a phone call following a January American action, Petro has subsequently stated he feels there is a "genuine danger" of military action targeting Colombia. Trump, for his part, has earlier remarked that a military operation in Colombia "sounds good".
The upcoming meeting comes after months of the two leaders exchanging criticisms. Petro has repeatedly criticised ongoing US attacks on suspected drugs boats in the regional waters, as well as the US administration's immigration policies.
"He changed his attitude," Trump reportedly saying ahead of the White House talks.
Points of Contention
On the US side, Trump has accused Petro's government of not taking sufficient action to stop the trafficking of cocaine toward the United States, and has vowed to expand strikes to terrestrial objectives across the area.
But, the acrimony seemed to subside after a "polite" telephone conversation between the two leaders, which a source from Bogotá later characterized as an complete reversal "by both parties".
Diplomatic Bridge
According to diplomatic sources, one man – US Senator Rand Paul – was instrumental in setting up the conversation. "I believe in negotiation and I thought our ties were going in the wrong way," the lawmaker was quoted as saying. "My hope is for our relations to get better."
Regional Stability and the ELN
Ahead of the visit, Colombian indicated that much of the conversation would focus on mutual US and Colombian worries over security in the neighboring country, with which Colombia shares an extensive frontier.
A significant portion of that frontier is controlled of the ELN. This Colombian guerrilla group, founded in the 1960s, dominates drug trafficking, racketeering, contraband, and unlawful extraction in border states and reportedly works with corrupt elements within the Venezuelan government.
For Trump, tackling the threat of the ELN will be crucial to ensuring safety for US firms engaged in Venezuela's oil industry. Analysts note that the ELN has the capacity to disrupt investment plans by targeting international businesses and employees, as it has previously attempted in Colombia.
Drug War Cooperation
An similarly urgent issue for the two leaders will be the fight against cocaine trafficking from Colombia, the global largest source of the drug. Earlier this year, Petro ordered a halt on intelligence sharing with US authorities following Trump's threats.
The US has, conversely, formally designated Colombia as a country that has "not met its obligations" in controlling the narcotics trade. It has also imposed sanctions on Colombian officials, encompassing the president and his relatives.
"Combating the cocaine trade is impossible without Colombia," said a regional security expert. "The threat to sever Colombian cooperation could also weaken all enforcement efforts."
Potential Outcomes
Despite several issues for collaboration, the potential for a confrontation remains. "Trump loves you one day, dislikes you the next day," observed a ex-official. "I suspect is that Petro will walk in with some concessions to avert Trump's ire... But one never knows."
But for Petro, even a difficult meeting could be advantageous. His presidential term concludes soon, and the results of the talks could influence the political future of his preferred successor.
"In some ways, he's kind of in a favorable position," said a Latin American studies professor. "A positive outcome takes the air out of criticism... If talks sour, he's defending national sovereignty. He could use that in his favour."
