Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
