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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement wins the award. However, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the biggest shock.

Yet the latest race is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and longtime strugglers improving together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a typical year!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still